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Given my desirabilities D1, D2, D3, D4 for the four potential outcomes BBandGC, GND, CLC, ECS, and the probability, p, of uncertain magnitude between 0 and 1 for a socialist transformation, how would I nevertheless quantify my expectations or utility values regarding my two possible courses of action: committing to economic growth or committing to economic contraction?As follows. Given my subjectively quantified desirabilities D1, D2, D3, D4 for the four potential societal outcomes, along with the as yet unknown probability p for a near term socialist transformation, the utility value or expectation a quantification of my potential satisfaction or dissatisfaction for committing to economic growth isWhile I can pick desirabilities out of my own subjective preferences, feelings and biases, I can only guess or guesstimate at what p might be. So, making such a guesstimate, I can then actually calculate a numerical value for each of Eg and Er. Comparing these, I would then choose to act according to whichever expectation quantity had the higher value. This is Bayesian decision making, you choose the action that is subjectively of higher value to you, given your estimate of the probabilities of the uncertainties. 5 would have utility values ofBut not everybody is so lopsided in their preferences. So, for the probability of socialism, p, estimated at greater than 1/3, Er is greater that Eg; committing to economic contraction will have more personal value that committing to economic expansion. Obversely, for the probability of socialism, p, estimated at less than 1/3, Eg is greater than Er; and committing to economic expansion will have more personal value than committing to economic contraction. For this mild liberal individual, if they believe that socialism has a better than 33% chance of happening, they should commit to economic contraction, environmentalism and consequently socialism. If they believe that socialism has less than a 33% chance of occurring then they should commit to being an economic growth capitalist. All this is based on personal subjectivities that arise from the confrontation with the objective realities of this Americans life in a world of climate change, and an assumed probability of future political change.


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Some of the factors that are used to determine your insurance premium are your driving record, the type of car you drive, the area you reside in, how far you drive to work each day, and even your credit score. Obviously, if you drive a sports care the insurance company assumes you are a higher risk than the mom who drives the minivan full of girl scouts. People that live in the city have much more opportunities for fender benders than those that live in tiny towns with few cars on the road. But aside from trading in your luxury car for a beater, there are some things you can do to save money on your insurance. First thing first, you need to look at your current policy and see if you have what you really need while looking for opportunities to scale back. Many of us set up our insurance policies when we first purchase our car and never give it a second thought. What you need to pay as you drive your car off the lot and what you need to pay when your car is ten years old are very different amounts. If your car loan is paid off, do a quick internet search to see what the blue book value is on your car. When you do so, appraise it honestly. Do not claim that your car is in "excellent" condition if it has rust spots or dings. The amount your car is worth at book value, not in what you paid for it, is an important number.



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If they had, there might have been a big payday waiting for them. In 2009, the toy industry generated more than $21 billion in revenue despite a down economy, and that figure doesn't include candy, clothing and all sorts of other things made specifically for kids . Inventing for kids can reward more than bank accounts. For instance, Ralph Baer, known as the "Father of Video Games" for inventing the first video game console, was awarded a National Medal of Technology by President Bush in 2006 . So which inventions for kids landed in our top five?Read on to find out. Starting our list of inventions with a bang or a pop, at least is the toy balloon. Blow one up and bop it around or fill one with helium and watch it fly. You could make a strong case that balloons, at just a few cents apiece, provide the highest fun to cost ratio on the planet. Although toy balloons have been made from latex since the early 19th century, the first toy balloons were made of something a little harder to stomach animal intestines. After cleaning them out and stretching them, they could be filled with air, just like the balloons you buy at the store. In fact, the Aztecs even created balloon shaped like animals this way as part of certain religious ceremonies .



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Phil. , Ph. D. IMPEDIMENTS IN PROMOTING COMMUNICATIVE COMPETENCE AMONGSTUDENTS OF ENGLISH AS A SECOND LANGUAGE . V. Suntharesan, Ph. D. Snapshot of Elementary School Thai English Teachers' Perceived English Proficiency And Self Reported English Teaching Efficacy . Barbara Best, MA TESOL CandidateIMPACT OF BORROWINGS FROM ENGLISH ONJAFFNA TAMILA Text Book For University Students . Dr. V.



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Article Source: For More Information on How To Get Rid of Bed Bugs Please Visit: GuitarjoeJanie's life was going well until about a year ago when her boyfriend of five years, Jim, suddenly decided to end their relationship. It was extremely difficult for Janie because the two of them had discussed marriage earlier in their relationship, but it came even more difficult when she found out that Jim later married one of her dear friends from high school. Janie has has steadily gone downhill since that happened and her close friends and family have noticed things about her that they never had in the past. For example, Janie sometimes would talk rapidly where no one else could get in a word. She also began talking "out of sorts" about the faces she would see floating around in her house and how they were telling her that her father, an former active duty marine, would be entrusted with secret government materials that was going to save America in the war on terror. She would also sometimes laugh uncontrollably about small things that others really didn't find funny. Janie may have been suffering from symptoms of Bipolar Disorder. People with Bipolar Disorder are also often referred to a Manic Depressive. People with Bipolar Disorder can have serious, sometimes even violent moodswings. As in the example above, Janie could just as easily go from laughing, to crying uncontrollably, to even lashing out in violence. Although you may not believe that a person who seems normally gentle could behave in this manner you must realize that people who are Manic Depressive do not have normal personality traits.

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